2026 Candidates Prediction after Round 2

2026 Candidates – Round 2 (All Draws)

2026 Candidates Prediction Model

In‑tournament TPR · dynamic projections · win probabilities

📊 ROUND 2 · ALL DRAWS
RankPlayerTPRPtsWin ProbabilityOutlook
1Fabiano Caruana30001.016.5%
🚀 Strong start
2R Praggnanandhaa30001.016.5%
🚀 Strong start
3Wei Yi30000.512.0%
⚖️ Solid start
4Javokhir Sindarov28001.014.0%
🚀 Strong start
5Anish Giri28000.04.5%
⚠️ Needs recovery
6Matthias Bluebaum26000.58.0%
⚖️ Solid start
7Hikaru Nakamura26000.04.0%
⚠️ Needs recovery
8Andrey Esipenko26000.04.0%
⚠️ Needs recovery
📊 Win probability = chance to reach 8.5 pts (historical threshold) 📈 TPR = in‑tournament rating (all start at 2800) 🔄 Updates after every round
✅ Validated on 2013–2024 Candidates · First “top‑two >50%” milestone will appear in coming rounds

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