2026 CANDIDATES RATING STRENGTH
The Weakest Candidates in a Decade?
When the eight players gather in Cyprus later this week, they will represent the lowest average rating for a Candidates Tournament since the modern double‑round‑robin era began in 2013 – with the sole exception of 2024. The 2026 field averages approximately 2749 (using March 2026 ratings), trailing every other edition except the Toronto tournament two years ago.
At first glance, the numbers seem to suggest a drop in quality. But rating averages can be misleading. They reflect a changing chess landscape: the absence of Magnus Carlsen, the introduction of qualification paths that favour tournament winners over rating grinders, and the emergence of a generation of young talents whose ratings have not yet caught up to their potential. In this article, we examine the data, explore the reasons behind the dip, and ask: does rating strength predict the drama to come?
Average Ratings: 2013–2026
The table below shows the average rating of the eight participants in each Candidates Tournament since the format was introduced in 2013. Ratings are taken from the official FIDE list published closest to the start of each event.
| Year | Average Rating | Winner | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2786 | Magnus Carlsen | Strongest field ever |
| 2014 | 2777 | Viswanathan Anand | |
| 2016 | 2777 | Sergey Karjakin | |
| 2018 | 2785 | Fabiano Caruana | Second strongest |
| 2020 | 2773 | Ian Nepomniachtchi | Event suspended, resumed 2021 |
| 2022 | 2766 | Ian Nepomniachtchi | |
| 2024 | 2744 | Dommaraju Gukesh | Lowest before 2026 |
| 2026 | 2749 | ? |
The 2026 average of 2749 is slightly above 2024’s 2744, but still well below the 2770–2780 range that was typical for most of the 2010s. The 2013 edition remains the strongest on record, buoyed by Carlsen (2872), Aronian (2821), Kramnik (2810), and a deep field.
Why the Drop?
Several factors explain the lower rating average:
1. The Absence of Magnus Carlsen
Carlsen’s retirement from the world championship cycle removed a perennial 2830+ anchor from the rating pool. In 2013, his 2872 alone lifted the average significantly. No player in the 2026 field is rated above 2810 (Nakamura).
2. Qualification Paths Prioritize Results Over Ratings
The modern Candidates offers four paths: the FIDE Circuit, the Grand Swiss, the World Cup, and the rating qualifier. The first three reward tournament winners and deep knockout runs, which can be achieved by players rated outside the top 5. Matthias Blübaum (2698) and Andrey Esipenko (2698) are the lowest‑rated participants in a decade – both earned their spots through strong performances in the Grand Swiss and World Cup, respectively.
3. The Rise of Young Talent
Javokhir Sindarov (2745), R Praggnanandhaa (2741), and Wei Yi (2754) are all under 27. Their ratings are still climbing; in previous eras, they might have been rated 50 points higher by the time they qualified. The fact that they have broken through so young reflects a shift in chess demographics, not a decline in strength.
4. The Rating Qualifier Loophole
Hikaru Nakamura (2810) qualified via the rating spot, but his inclusion required him to play 22 games in small opens – a strategy that kept his rating high but also meant he didn't face elite opposition in the run‑up. The mid‑cycle rule change may prevent such tactics in future cycles, but for 2026, it contributed to the presence of a 2810 player without the usual preparation against top‑level opposition.
Does a Lower Average Matter?
History suggests that rating averages do not predict the quality of the tournament or the eventual world champion. The 2024 Candidates had the lowest average in the modern era, yet produced one of the most exciting finishes – a 17‑year‑old (Gukesh) winning the event and then the world title. The 2013 edition, despite its record average, saw Carlsen cruise to victory in a relatively predictable manner.
Moreover, the gap between a 2750‑rated player and a 2780‑rated player is often smaller than the numbers imply. Modern preparation, computer assistance, and the volatility of elite chess mean that any of the eight participants in Cyprus has a realistic chance to win. The betting odds reflect this: Caruana is the favourite at 38%, but the combined chance of the other seven is 62%.
What to Expect
The 2026 field is not the strongest by rating, but it may be one of the most unpredictable. Veterans like Caruana and Nakamura carry the weight of expectation, while the young brigade – Sindarov, Pragg, Wei Yi – have nothing to lose. Anish Giri seeks to prove that solidity can win; Matthias Blübaum hopes to defy the odds again. The absence of a clear super‑favourite (Carlen-esque) means the tournament is wide open.
– Viswanathan Anand
When the first move is made on 29 March, the ratings will fade into the background. What will matter is the chess: the sacrifices, the endgames, the clock, the nerves. By that measure, the 2026 Candidates promises to be every bit as compelling as its predecessors – perhaps even more so because no one can claim a decisive edge before the games begin.
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