Chess Candidates 2026 Preview
US Chess preview: Candidates 2026 favourites, contenders & dark horses
The 2026 FIDE Candidates and Women’s Candidates tournaments begin on Sunday, March 29 in Paphos, Cyprus. Eight players compete in each event, with the winners earning the right to challenge reigning World Champion GM Gukesh Dommaraju and Women’s World Champion GM Ju Wenjun, respectively. The 14‑round double round‑robins run through Wednesday, April 15, with tiebreaks on the 16th if needed. Rounds start at 8:30 a.m. EDT / 5:30 a.m. PDT.
Chess Life Online asked GM Josh Friedel, IM Robert Shlyakhtenko, IM Tatev Abrahamyan, WGM Katerina Nemcova, and WGM Sabina Foisor to provide round‑by‑round coverage. In this preview, JJ Lang offers a subjective tier‑by‑tier breakdown of both fields. The opinions are his own – and they’re meant to spark discussion.
Below, we summarise his analysis, highlighting the favourites, contenders, and dark horses in the Open and Women’s events, with select game annotations that illustrate each player’s style.
Lang picks Nakamura as his overall favourite. He notes Nakamura’s consistency, his strong 2024 Candidates (8½/14), and his recent head‑to‑head edge over Caruana: the last six decisive classical games between them have all ended in Nakamura’s favour. The only question mark is his relatively light classical schedule in the past two years, but his rating gains in Norway Chess and the American Cup suggest he remains at his peak.
Caruana is the other obvious favourite. He qualified early, has won four consecutive US Championships, and tied for second in the 2024 Candidates with four wins against lower‑ranked players. However, his 2025 form was mixed (a dip at Tata Steel and a loss to Wesley So in the American Cup). Lang believes those results are partly due to having already secured his Candidates spot and possibly hiding preparation. Caruana’s ability to win as Black against 2700+ players remains a major weapon.
Lang calls Giri the “third favourite”, noting his resurgence after falling out of the top 10 in 2024. He qualified by winning the Grand Swiss, showing stamina and confidence. “The way he won against GM Hans Niemann was a bit spooky – it was so clear that he believed he was going to win from the start.” Giri’s recent climb back into the top 10 (peaking at fifth last November) suggests he’s a serious contender, far from the “Draw‑nish” memes of his 2016 Candidates.
The 20‑year‑old Uzbek prodigy is the reigning World Cup champion. He gained 19 rating points at the 2026 Tata Steel Masters and reached a peak ranking of 12th. Lang puts him in the contenders category only because of his youth and first‑time appearance, but his recent play is at a favourite’s level.
Wei Yi qualified from the World Cup and enters as the world’s eighth‑highest‑rated player. He has shown a high ceiling since his 2024 Tata Steel victory, and at 26 he is mature enough to handle the pressure. This is also his first Candidates, but he’s no stranger to high‑stakes team events with China.
Praggnanandhaa qualified via the FIDE Circuit. His results have been very good but inconsistent; he finished with an even score in his first Candidates in 2024. Esipenko finished third in the World Cup, showing the ability to hold solid draws against strong players, but his upside remains uncertain. Blübaum impressed at the Grand Swiss and in Tata Steel, creating promising positions against elite players; he’s a threat to upset anyone, but winning the whole event seems a stretch.
After spending most of 2023–24 in the 2400s, Zhu broke into the women’s top 10 in late 2024 and now sits at world #4. She won the Grand Prix cycle handily, finishing first or second in all three events she played. Lang calls her “in a class of her own” – a universal player comfortable in both endgames and attacks, and able to bounce back from losses with multiple wins. Her game from the Grand Prix is included as an example of her style.
Assaubayeva won the Women’s World Blitz in 2021, 2022 and 2025, and her classical chess has caught up. At Tata Steel Challengers she gained 19 points, and she shows the nerves to handle complex positions. Lang notes she was “dominant” in her qualification path and could be a dark‑horse favourite.
Despite a lopsided loss in the 2025 Women’s World Championship match, Tan has proven she can win this tournament (she took it in 2024 with 9/14). She is a stubborn, solid player who knows how to score.
Goryachkina was the first woman to cross 2600 after Hou Yifan. Her recent results have been more conservative, but she remains consistent. She gained rating in the Open section of the Grand Swiss and still shows sharp endgame skill, as in her win over GM Daniil Yuffa.
Muzychuk, a last‑minute replacement for Humpy Koneru, is a former world championship runner‑up and the fourth woman to cross 2600. Lagno’s performance at the Women’s Grand Swiss was excellent, but she has been inconsistent. Divya Deshmukh, 20, earned her GM title by winning the 2025 Women’s World Cup and gained rating in the Grand Swiss; she could finish near the top. Vaishali won last year’s Women’s Grand Swiss, showing she knows how to peak at the right time, and could make a deep run.
Chess Life Online will provide round‑by‑round coverage with contributions from top American players. Games start at 8:30 a.m. EDT / 5:30 a.m. PDT. Pairings and results are available at the official FIDE site. The tournament will also be broadcast live on FIDE’s YouTube channel with commentary by Peter Svidler, Jan Gustafsson, and guests.
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