MVL: “I wouldn’t even give Magnus 40%!” – Caruana’s Candidates chances
“I wouldn’t even give Magnus 40%!”
In the endless pre‑tournament debate over who will win the 2026 Candidates, one voice has cut through the noise. Maxime Vachier‑Lagrave, the French grandmaster who famously finished joint first in the 2020 Candidates as a last‑minute replacement, has delivered a sobering assessment of Fabiano Caruana’s chances – and the very nature of the event itself.
While acknowledging Caruana as the “clear and obvious favourite”, MVL rejects the notion that the American has a 40% chance to win the tournament – a figure that has been floated in some predictions and betting markets.
But even though he’s the favourite, anyone can perform well, anyone can win. I don’t think the gap is that big. I’ve heard people say Caruana has a 40% chance of winning — I don’t believe that. I’d put his chances at around 20–25%, but definitely no more.”
— Maxime Vachier‑Lagrave (Rookreview)
The comment is a sharp rebuke to those who see Caruana as a near‑certainty. MVL, who has himself competed in two Candidates tournaments (2020, 2022) and won the 2020 event on tiebreaks, speaks from experience. He understands that even the most consistent players cannot dominate the Candidates the way they might a normal tournament.
MVL’s argument goes beyond Caruana. He argues that the very structure of the Candidates – a fourteen‑round double round‑robin against the world’s strongest – makes any single player’s chances inherently capped, regardless of rating or form.
Even if you’re Magnus Carlsen, you still have to somehow overperform to win the Candidates. Of course, Magnus at his best would be a favourite with more than a 25% chance, but I’m not even sure I would give Magnus 40%.”
— Maxime Vachier‑Lagrave
This is a remarkable statement: that even the greatest player of the modern era, at his peak, would not be a 40% favourite to win the Candidates. The logic is simple: the field is too deep, the format too unforgiving, and the margins too small. In a tournament where a single loss can derail a campaign, no one is safe.
To put this in perspective: in the six Candidates tournaments since the double round‑robin format was introduced in 2013, the winner has had an average score of 8.5/14 (60.7%). The highest score was Caruana’s 9/14 in 2018. No one has ever dominated the modern Candidates. The tournament is designed to produce a worthy challenger, not a runaway winner.
Bookmakers have Caruana as the favourite at 13/8 (implied probability 38.1%). Nakamura is next at 13/5 (27.8%). The combined probability of Caruana and Nakamura winning is 66% – a figure MVL’s analysis suggests is overconfident.
MVL’s 20‑25% range for Caruana aligns more closely with the historical record. Since 2013, the pre‑tournament favourite has won only twice (Carlsen in 2013, Caruana in 2018). In the other four editions, the winner was either the second favourite (Karjakin in 2016, Nepomniachtchi in 2020/21) or a complete outsider (Gukesh in 2024, who was 20‑1).
“Anyone can surprise – in both good and bad ways,” MVL added. It’s a reminder that the Candidates is less a coronation than a survival test.
When MVL speaks, he does so from a unique perspective. In 2020, he was called up as a last‑minute replacement for the withdrawing Teimour Radjabov. He had no preparation time, no expectation, and yet he finished joint first with Ian Nepomniachtchi, losing the tiebreak for the world championship match only on tiebreaks. He knows that the Candidates rewards those who can survive, not just those who arrive with the highest rating.
His comment about Caruana’s chances is not a dismissal of Caruana’s strength – it is a recognition of the event’s inherent volatility. “Even playing extremely well doesn’t guarantee victory,” he said. In a tournament where every opponent is a 2700+ grandmaster, the gap between favourite and outsider is narrower than the odds suggest.
As the tournament approaches, MVL’s words serve as a caution against over‑confidence in any single player. The Candidates has produced surprise winners before (Gukesh, Karjakin) and will likely do so again. Caruana may well justify his favourite status, but even his own compatriot, Hikaru Nakamura, has warned that “form and momentum can be unpredictable”.
When the first move is made on 29 March, the percentages and predictions will fade. What remains is the board, the clock, and the fourteen‑round fight to be the last one standing. MVL’s message is clear: the Candidates is a tournament where even the best must surpass themselves – and even the greatest would not be a 40% favourite.
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