The Tier Wars
The Tier Wars
With the 2026 Candidates just days away, seven of the world's top grandmasters – including the legendary Magnus Carlsen, contenders Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana, and rising stars like Javokhir Sindarov – have released their personal tier lists. Who do they see as favourites? Which players do they believe “should be playing” but aren't? And where does the consensus lie? We’ve compiled all the rankings into one graphically rich overview.
📊 The Consensus: Who the GMs agree on
| Player | Favourite mentions | “Should be playing” mentions | Never mentioned as unlikely |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Fabiano Caruana | 7/7 (100%) | 0 | ✓ |
| 🇺🇸 Hikaru Nakamura | 6/7 (86%) | 0 | ✓ |
| 🇮🇳 R Praggnanandhaa | 4/7 (57%) | 0 | — |
| 🇳🇱 Anish Giri | 3/7 (43%) | 0 | — |
| 🇺🇿 Javokhir Sindarov | 2/7 (29%) | 0 | — |
| 🇨🇳 Wei Yi | 1/7 (14%) | 0 | — |
| 🇷🇺 Andrey Esipenko | 1/7 (14%) | 0 | — |
| 🇩🇪 Matthias Blübaum | 0 | 0 | — |
| Notable absentees: 🇮🇳 Arjun Erigaisi (6/7 “should be playing”), 🇺🇿 Nodirbek Abdusattorov (5/7), 🇩🇪 Vincent Keymer (5/7) | |||
The consensus is clear: Fabiano Caruana is the overwhelming favourite, named in every single tier list. Hikaru Nakamura follows closely. The young brigade – Praggnanandhaa, Sindarov, Wei Yi – are seen as dangerous but not yet at the very top. And the names that repeatedly surface as “should be playing” – Arjun Erigaisi, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Vincent Keymer – are a reminder that qualification paths can leave world‑class talent on the sidelines. When the first move is made on March 29, the board will deliver its own verdict.
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