Candidate Prediction Live Dashboard After Round 7

2026 Candidates Live Predictions – Round 7 Interactive Dashboard

🎯 2026 FIDE Candidates – Live Prediction Dashboard

Interactive win probability & APR evolution tracking

📊 Round 7 (Halfway Point) Update

📈 What You're Seeing

Welcome to the interactive prediction dashboard for the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament. This tool updates automatically after each round, showing how each player's chances of winning have evolved from the neutral start (12.5% each at Round 0) to the current halfway point.

Current Leader: Javokhir Sindarov (6.0/7) leads with a 76.2% win probability and 83% model confidence—the highest halfway metrics in any backtested Candidates since 2013.

How it works: The model ignores pre-tournament Elo ratings and learns only from in-tournament results. Every player starts equal at 2800 APR. After each game, ratings update via adaptive Bayesian rules, and 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations project the remaining rounds. The result? A pure, results-only forecast that tracks momentum, not reputation.

Interactive features: Hover over any point to see exact win probabilities and APR values. Click legend items to show/hide specific players. Watch how the field has separated from perfect equality at Round 0 to today's decisive stratification.

📊 Win Probability Evolution (Rounds 0–7)

All players start equal at 12.5%. Watch how results create separation.

💡 Tip: Hover over points for exact values • Click legend items to toggle players
Sindarov
Caruana
Praggnanandhaa
Blübaum
Giri
Nakamura
Wei Yi
Esipenko

Solid lines = Top 5 contenders | Dashed lines = Bottom 3 (statistically marginalized)

📈 Adaptive Performance Rating (APR) Evolution

Starting from neutral 2800 baseline. Higher = stronger current form.

Sindarov
Caruana
Praggnanandhaa
Blübaum
Giri
Nakamura
Wei Yi
Esipenko

APR updates use adaptive K-factor (R1: 18.0 → R7: 7.7) for stable learning

Model: CITF v1.2+LTB (Candidates In-Tournament Forecast) | Method: 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations + Adaptive Bayesian ratings

📥 Want the raw data or methodology details? Check the Reddit discussion

Updates after each round • Last updated: Round 7 (April 5, 2026) • Probabilities, not prophecies

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