Candidates In-Tournament Prediction Evolution Round 0 To 8

Rounds 0–8

๐Ÿ“ˆ Win Probability Evolution

Candidates 2026 • Closed-System Model

25% 50% 75% 100% R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 Sindarov Caruana Praggnanandhaa Giri Others omitted for clarity
Player R0 R2 R4 R6 R7 R8 ฮ”
Sindarov 12.5% 22.4% 56.1% 76.2% 76.2% 82.4% +69.9
Caruana 12.5% 16.2% 24.8% 19.2% 19.2% 11.8% −0.7
Praggnanandhaa 12.5% 11.8% 13.2% 11.8% 11.8% 1.9% −10.6
Giri 12.5% 10.4% 6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 8.2% −4.3
Others (avg) 12.5% 9.1% 5.4% 3.4% 2.9% 1.1% −11.4
๐Ÿ”‘ Key Observations:
  • Sindarov's trajectory: Steady rise from 12.5% → 82.4% as results compounded
  • Caruana's path: Peaked at R4 (24.8%), declined after head-to-head losses
  • Tail cut visible: Rounds 6–8 show sharp drops for Pragg, Giri, others
  • R8 inflection: Caruana's loss caused largest single-round drop (−7.4 pts)
  • Convergence pattern: Equal start (12.5% each) → highly stratified by R8

CITF v1.2+LTB • Candidates In-Tournament Forecast Engine
100k Monte Carlo Simulations • Closed-System Point Conservation
Generated: April 6, 2026 • Round 8 of 14

Probabilities, not prophecies. Model updates after each round.

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