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The Tier Wars

The Tier Wars: Who the GMs are backing | 2026 Candidates The Tier Wars Who the world's best think will win the 2026 Candidates By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com With the 2026 Candidates just days away, seven of the world's top grandmasters – including the legendary Magnus Carlsen , contenders Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana , and rising stars like Javokhir Sindarov – have released their personal tier lists. Who do they see as favourites? Which players do they believe “should be playing” but aren't? And where does the consensus lie? We’ve compiled all the rankings into one graphically rich overview. ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Magnus Carlsen 2840 ๐Ÿ”ฅ Favourites ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Caruana ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Nakamura ⭐ Third favourite ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Pragg ๐Ÿ“‰ Big drop‑off / Unlikely to win ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Wei Yi ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Giri ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Esipenko ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Blรผbaum ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Sindarov ๐ŸŽฏ Should be playing ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Keyme...

How Eyegaze Research Shaped A Candidates Challenger

How eye‑gaze research shaped a Candidates challenger | The Gauntlet The Eye‑Gaze Scientist How Matthias Blรผbaum’s university helped decode chess excellence By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com ♟️ From the Teutoburg Forest to the Candidates When Matthias Blรผbaum sits down at the board in Cyprus later this week, he will carry more than just a 2698 rating and a Cinderella story from the Grand Swiss. The 28‑year‑old German studied mathematics and physics at Bielefeld University – a campus nestled against the Teutoburg Forest, and home to one of the most ambitious research projects ever conducted on chess expertise. Between 2016 and 2019, scientists at Bielefeld’s Cluster of Excellence Cognitive Interaction Technology (CITEC) worked alongside French researchers to literally watch how chess players think – by tracking their eye movements, microexpressions, heart rate and even perspiration . Blรผbaum was part of...

Koneru Humpy Withdraws From Women's Candidates

Koneru Humpy Withdraws from Women’s Candidates | The Gauntlet Koneru Humpy withdraws from Women’s Candidates India’s top female GM cites safety concerns amid Cyprus uncertainty By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com “A painful but necessary decision” In a move that has sent shockwaves through the chess world, Koneru Humpy , India’s all‑time great and two‑time Women’s World Rapid Champion, has officially withdrawn from the FIDE Women’s Candidates Tournament , scheduled to begin on March 28 in Pegeia, Cyprus. The 38‑year‑old veteran announced her decision on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday, writing: “After deep reflection, I have taken the difficult decision to withdraw from the FIDE Women’s Candidates Tournament. No event, no matter how important, can come before personal safety and well‑being. Despite the assurances provided, I do not feel fully secure under the current circumstances. This is a...

2026 CANDIDATES RATING STRENGTH

Rating Strength: How Does 2026 Compare? | Candidates 2026 The Weakest Candidates in a Decade? By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com When the eight players gather in Cyprus later this week, they will represent the lowest average rating for a Candidates Tournament since the modern double‑round‑robin era began in 2013 – with the sole exception of 2024. The 2026 field averages approximately 2749 (using March 2026 ratings), trailing every other edition except the Toronto tournament two years ago. At first glance, the numbers seem to suggest a drop in quality. But rating averages can be misleading. They reflect a changing chess landscape: the absence of Magnus Carlsen, the introduction of qualification paths that favour tournament winners over rating grinders, and the emergence of a generation of young talents whose ratings have not yet caught up to their potential. In this article, we examine the data, explore the reasons behind the dip, and ask: does rati...

How To Win The Candidates

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What The Numbers Say

What the Numbers Say | 2026 Candidates What the Numbers Say Does prior Candidates performance predict future success? By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com In the run‑up to the 2026 Candidates, every fan has an opinion. But what do the numbers say? A chess data blog, Chess by the Numbers , has crunched the performances of all 48 players who competed in the modern Candidates (2013–2022) to answer a deceptively simple question: if a player overperforms their rating in one Candidates, are they likely to do so again? The answer, it turns out, is complicated—but tantalisingly suggestive. With small sample sizes and plenty of caveats, the data hints that a few players may genuinely be “Candidates specialists”. And that could matter for how we view the 2026 field. ๐Ÿ“Š The Data: 48 Performances, 14 Players with Multiple Appearances From 2013 to 2022, eight players competed in each of the six Candidates tou...

PRAGGNANANDHAA : The Senior Prodigy

R Praggnanandhaa: The Senior Prodigy | 2026 Candidates R Praggnanandhaa: The Senior Prodigy India’s next great hope—and the man who would dethrone his countrymate By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com When Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa sits down at the board in Cyprus, he will be making his second consecutive Candidates appearance. At 20, he is the same age as Javokhir Sindarov, but in chess terms, he is already a veteran. He has beaten Magnus Carlsen in classical chess. He has reached the final of the World Cup. He has won the Tata Steel Masters. And now, he returns to the tournament where, in 2024, he finished fifth—an impressive debut, but not the triumph he craved. This time, the stakes are higher: his countryman, Dommaraju Gukesh, sits on the world throne. If Pragg wins the Candidates, he would become the second Indian in history to challenge for the title, and the first to face a fellow Indian in a world championship m...