Chess Candidates 2026

The Tier Wars: Who the GMs are backing | 2026 Candidates The Tier Wars Who the world's best think will win the 2026 Candidates By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com With the 2026 Candidates just days away, seven of the world's top grandmasters – including the legendary Magnus Carlsen , contenders Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana , and rising stars like Javokhir Sindarov – have released their personal tier lists. Who do they see as favourites? Which players do they believe “should be playing” but aren't? And where does the consensus lie? We’ve compiled all the rankings into one graphically rich overview. 🇳🇴 Magnus Carlsen 2840 🔥 Favourites 🇺🇸 Caruana 🇺🇸 Nakamura ⭐ Third favourite 🇮🇳 Pragg 📉 Big drop‑off / Unlikely to win 🇨🇳 Wei Yi 🇳🇱 Giri 🇷🇺 Esipenko 🇩🇪 Blübaum 🇺🇿 Sindarov 🎯 Should be playing 🇩🇪 Keyme...

How eye‑gaze research shaped a Candidates challenger | The Gauntlet The Eye‑Gaze Scientist How Matthias Blübaum’s university helped decode chess excellence By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com ♟️ From the Teutoburg Forest to the Candidates When Matthias Blübaum sits down at the board in Cyprus later this week, he will carry more than just a 2698 rating and a Cinderella story from the Grand Swiss. The 28‑year‑old German studied mathematics and physics at Bielefeld University – a campus nestled against the Teutoburg Forest, and home to one of the most ambitious research projects ever conducted on chess expertise. Between 2016 and 2019, scientists at Bielefeld’s Cluster of Excellence Cognitive Interaction Technology (CITEC) worked alongside French researchers to literally watch how chess players think – by tracking their eye movements, microexpressions, heart rate and even perspiration . Blübaum was part of...

Koneru Humpy Withdraws from Women’s Candidates | The Gauntlet Koneru Humpy withdraws from Women’s Candidates India’s top female GM cites safety concerns amid Cyprus uncertainty By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com “A painful but necessary decision” In a move that has sent shockwaves through the chess world, Koneru Humpy , India’s all‑time great and two‑time Women’s World Rapid Champion, has officially withdrawn from the FIDE Women’s Candidates Tournament , scheduled to begin on March 28 in Pegeia, Cyprus. The 38‑year‑old veteran announced her decision on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday, writing: “After deep reflection, I have taken the difficult decision to withdraw from the FIDE Women’s Candidates Tournament. No event, no matter how important, can come before personal safety and well‑being. Despite the assurances provided, I do not feel fully secure under the current circumstances. This is a...

Rating Strength: How Does 2026 Compare? | Candidates 2026 The Weakest Candidates in a Decade? By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com When the eight players gather in Cyprus later this week, they will represent the lowest average rating for a Candidates Tournament since the modern double‑round‑robin era began in 2013 – with the sole exception of 2024. The 2026 field averages approximately 2749 (using March 2026 ratings), trailing every other edition except the Toronto tournament two years ago. At first glance, the numbers seem to suggest a drop in quality. But rating averages can be misleading. They reflect a changing chess landscape: the absence of Magnus Carlsen, the introduction of qualification paths that favour tournament winners over rating grinders, and the emergence of a generation of young talents whose ratings have not yet caught up to their potential. In this article, we examine the data, explore the reasons behind the dip, and ask: does rati...

 

What the Numbers Say | 2026 Candidates What the Numbers Say Does prior Candidates performance predict future success? By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com In the run‑up to the 2026 Candidates, every fan has an opinion. But what do the numbers say? A chess data blog, Chess by the Numbers , has crunched the performances of all 48 players who competed in the modern Candidates (2013–2022) to answer a deceptively simple question: if a player overperforms their rating in one Candidates, are they likely to do so again? The answer, it turns out, is complicated—but tantalisingly suggestive. With small sample sizes and plenty of caveats, the data hints that a few players may genuinely be “Candidates specialists”. And that could matter for how we view the 2026 field. 📊 The Data: 48 Performances, 14 Players with Multiple Appearances From 2013 to 2022, eight players competed in each of the six Candidates tou...

R Praggnanandhaa: The Senior Prodigy | 2026 Candidates R Praggnanandhaa: The Senior Prodigy India’s next great hope—and the man who would dethrone his countrymate By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com When Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa sits down at the board in Cyprus, he will be making his second consecutive Candidates appearance. At 20, he is the same age as Javokhir Sindarov, but in chess terms, he is already a veteran. He has beaten Magnus Carlsen in classical chess. He has reached the final of the World Cup. He has won the Tata Steel Masters. And now, he returns to the tournament where, in 2024, he finished fifth—an impressive debut, but not the triumph he craved. This time, the stakes are higher: his countryman, Dommaraju Gukesh, sits on the world throne. If Pragg wins the Candidates, he would become the second Indian in history to challenge for the title, and the first to face a fellow Indian in a world championship m...

Andrey Esipenko: The Silent Mover | 2026 Candidates Andrey Esipenko: The Silent Mover The man who beat Magnus Carlsen—and then disappeared from the headlines By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com In a Candidates field crowded with storylines—Caruana’s last dance, Nakamura’s redemption, the Uzbek lion, the Indian prodigy—there is one player who enters almost without discussion. Andrey Esipenko , the 24‑year‑old from Novocherkassk, Russia, has one of the most remarkable scalps in modern chess: he defeated Magnus Carlsen in classical chess when he was just 18. Yet he arrives in Cyprus as the second‑longest shot on the board, his name barely mentioned in previews. This is the story of the silent mover—the player who may be the most underrated force in the tournament. 🌟 The Prodigy from Novocherkassk Andrey Evgenyevich Esipenko was born on March 22, 2002, in the Rostov region of southern Russia. He...

Wei Yi: The Silent Favorite | 2026 Candidates Wei Yi: The Silent Favorite From child prodigy to quiet contender – the return of China’s attacking genius By Barmoiben Kipkemoi Araap Korir · edwinkorir@gmail.com In a field dominated by American heavyweights, Indian prodigies, and a controversial American veteran, one player sits quietly near the middle of the odds list, largely overlooked by the betting markets but whispered about by grandmasters. Wei Yi , the 26‑year‑old from Jiangsu, China, has already lived a chess lifetime. He was once the youngest player to cross 2700. He played a game so beautiful it was called “immortal.” Then he disappeared, choosing university over elite competition. Now he is back, and those who have followed his career believe he may be the most dangerous player in Cyprus. 🌟 The Child Prodigy Wei Yi was born on June 2, 1999. By the age of 13, he was already a grandmaster. In 2015, at ju...