The Indian Prospects Chess Candidates 2026
Why are Indians not starting as favourites?
When Dommaraju Gukesh stormed the 2024 Candidates Tournament in Toronto, the chess world called it a miracle. When he dismantled Ding Liren in Singapore to become the youngest‑ever World Champion, that miracle became something else entirely – a seismic shift. Two years later, as the marathon to find his next challenger begins on Sunday in Cyprus, a curious silence hangs over the Indian camp. Despite Gukesh’s own recent admission that he would not mind an all‑Indian matchup against R Praggnanandhaa for the title, the pre‑tournament buzz indicates that Indians are not the leading favourites in either the open or women’s categories.
Times of India spoke to veteran Grandmaster Pravin Thipsay to understand why, and his analysis cuts to the heart of the tournament’s dynamics.
The primary reason for the tempered expectations lies in the sheer mathematical dominance of the American duo: World No. 2 Hikaru Nakamura and World No. 3 Fabiano Caruana. In an era of teenage phenoms, the veterans have recalibrated. Nakamura, at 38, remains a freak of nature, maintaining a 2800‑plus rating while balancing a full‑time streaming career.
— GM Pravin Thipsay
Caruana, 33, presents a different kind of hurdle – his “unbeatable” factor. “He is very solid,” Thipsay noted. “He doesn’t necessarily wish to win in the opening itself, but he’s always on solid ground. It’s possible Caruana ends up unbeaten in the event. The only problem he faces is being able to score heavily enough.”
For both, this may be their final realistic shot at a World Championship match before the door is bolted shut by the next generation. That urgency adds another layer to their already formidable skill.
While the world has been waiting for Praggnanandhaa to take the final leap, recent months have represented a period of consolidation rather than conquest. After a blistering run in the first half of 2025 – which included a Tata Steel Masters victory (beating Gukesh in the playoff) – the Chennai prodigy found the air slightly thinner at the very top during the latter half of the year. His start to 2026 hasn’t carried much positivity either.
— GM Pravin Thipsay
To win the Candidates, Pragg must revert to his roots as a cold‑blooded attacker. “He must concentrate on getting the initiative with the white pieces. His strength is mainly attack against the enemy king… he’s good at tactics and combinations,” Thipsay emphasised.
The challenge for the 20‑year‑old Indian is tactical bravery. In a field that includes Wei Yi and the unpredictable Javokhir Sindarov – who Thipsay warns “may cause upsets but has a habit of making simple mistakes” – Praggnanandhaa cannot afford to play for safe draws if he wants to set up that dream all‑Indian World Championship match.
If the Open section feels like a climb, the Women’s Candidates offers a brighter silver lining. With the withdrawal of the legendary Koneru Humpy due to safety concerns in West Asia, the spotlight has shifted entirely to the 20‑year‑old World Cup winner, Divya Deshmukh, and 24‑year‑old Vaishali Rameshbabu, winner of the 2025 Women’s Grand Swiss.
Despite being rated lower than top seed Zhu Jiner, Divya carries a psychological edge that most female players lack, as she regularly hunts in the Open (dominated by men) circuit.
— GM Pravin Thipsay
Thipsay believes the title is a straight shootout: “I would say the top position is expecting to go to either Zhu Jiner or Divya. Vaishali has an outside chance, but probably only for second or third.”
| Section | Favourites | Indian contenders | Expert view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 🇺🇸 Hikaru Nakamura, 🇺🇸 Fabiano Caruana | 🇮🇳 R Praggnanandhaa | Pragg must attack; veterans have edge |
| Women’s | 🇨🇳 Zhu Jiner, 🇰🇿 Bibisara Assaubayeva | 🇮🇳 Divya Deshmukh, 🇮🇳 Vaishali Rameshbabu | Divya’s open‑event experience gives her a real shot |
For India, the task is to prove that Gukesh wasn’t a standalone miracle, but the first of many. Whether Praggnanandhaa can find his attacking initiative or Divya can dismantle the Chinese wall, the next three weeks in Cyprus will decide if the World Championship remains an internal Indian affair or a global tug‑of‑war.
In an exclusive interview with Times of India, Koneru Humpy opened up about her decision to skip the Candidates, criticising FIDE’s choice of venue. “Would FIDE hold tournaments in Kashmir?” she asked pointedly, underlining the safety concerns that led to her withdrawal. Her absence has reshaped the women’s field and given Divya Deshmukh a clearer path to the top.
Read the full interview here.
The first round begins on Sunday, 29 March at 15:00 local time (UTC+3). The headline pairing: Caruana vs Nakamura. Also on the board: Sindarov–Esipenko, Blübaum–Wei Yi, and Praggnanandhaa–Giri. India’s lone hope in the Open, Pragg, faces the solid Dutchman Anish Giri – a test of his attacking resolve from the very first game.
Stay tuned to The Gauntlet for round‑by‑round reports, standings, and live commentary links.
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